{"id":12933,"date":"2017-08-10T16:05:15","date_gmt":"2017-08-10T09:05:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thitruongsi.com\/kinh-nghiem\/?p=12933"},"modified":"2017-08-10T16:05:15","modified_gmt":"2017-08-10T09:05:15","slug":"nhnn-bom-tien-de-kich-thich-tang-truong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thitruongsi.com\/kinh-nghiem\/nhnn-bom-tien-de-kich-thich-tang-truong\/","title":{"rendered":"NHNN b\u01a1m th\u00eam ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 ra, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng th\u00eam ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u1eeb nay cho \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a \u0111ang g\u1eb7p nhi\u1ec1u h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e2y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00ec vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u00e1 nhanh v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u1ed5ng c\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1eeba c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP qu\u00fd II \u0111\u1ea1t 6,17%, cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 5,78% c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2016. GDP t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh trong qu\u00fd II l\u00e0 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u00e1 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd, gi\u00fap k\u00e9o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP l\u0169y k\u1ebf 6 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 2016 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 5,73%, cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c 5,65% c\u1ee7a 6 th\u00e1ng 2016 nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c 6,32% 6 th\u00e1ng n\u0103m 2015.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng k\u00e9m trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu do s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p khai kho\u00e1ng khi b\u1ecb s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ebfn 8,2% v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7 trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u01a1n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 Samsung.<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong 6 th\u00e1ng c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u0103m nay v\u1eabn kh\u00e1 l\u1edbn, khi Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch 6,7% v\u00e0 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 ra h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p nh\u01b0 t\u0103ng th\u00eam s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh ng\u00e0nh khai kho\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u, nhanh ch\u00f3ng tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbn, r\u00e0 so\u00e1t to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 th\u00e1o g\u1ee1 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n \u0111\u1ec3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0a c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. Theo d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u00ec gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u trong n\u0103m nay d\u00f9 kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p, c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 nh\u01b0 Goldman Sachs cho r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u ng\u1ecdt nh\u1eb9 WTI ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 47,50 USD\/th\u00f9ng trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a, n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn t\u1edbi gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eadp si\u00eau.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 th\u00f4ng qua ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n nay, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a do th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch cao, n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 s\u1eafp ch\u1ea1m ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n th\u00ec n\u01b0\u1edbc ta kh\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch huy \u0111\u1ed9ng ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng, tuy nhi\u00ean c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 lan t\u1ecfa th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. Do \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a hi\u1ec7n nay kh\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111ang mu\u1ed1n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1eddi gian qua \u0111\u00e3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Theo T\u1ed5ng c\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng th\u00e1ng 6 gi\u1ea3m 0,17% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, t\u0103ng 2,54% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 2016 v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m ch\u1ec9 m\u1edbi t\u0103ng 0,2%, c\u00f2n c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1 xa m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 4% \u0111\u1ec1 ra trong n\u0103m nay.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 th\u1eddi gian qua c\u0169ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho nh\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh n\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. So v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 trung t\u00e2m ch\u1ec9 m\u1edbi t\u0103ng 1,23%, theo \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 trong t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t c\u1ee7a NHNN.<\/p>\n

V\u00ec v\u1eady, th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi NHNN c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng cung ti\u1ec1n theo ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. T\u1ea1i phi\u00ean h\u1ecdp Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 th\u00e1ng 5\/2017, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u NHNN t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch 18%, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 6 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ebfn 7,54% – m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong v\u00f2ng 6 n\u0103m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng cho th\u1ea5y NHNN c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cho m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng nh\u1eb1m t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho ng\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng cho vay \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch khu v\u1ef1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c d\u00e2n c\u01b0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n

Th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y NHNN c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng b\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n ra n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c mua v\u00e0o ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ec3 gia t\u0103ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y l\u00e0m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng l\u00ean, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00fap \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m th\u00eam. \u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra trong c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2016.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, NHNN c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u00e1i chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u00e1i c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3m d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thanh kho\u1ea3n nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 k\u00edch v\u1ed1n cho vay nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd, v\u00ec n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e9o v\u1ed1n kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ea1y v\u00e0o khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng m\u00e0 l\u1ea1i ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, t\u00edch t\u1ee5 th\u00eam nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. L\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung ti\u1ec1n n\u1ebfu t\u0103ng qu\u00e1 nhanh c\u0169ng s\u1ebd g\u00e2y gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean cao.<\/p>\n

GIA L\u00ca<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 ra, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng th\u00eam ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u1eeb nay cho \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a \u0111ang g\u1eb7p nhi\u1ec1u h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. \u00a0 Tuy nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e2y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12934,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,50,68,52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ban-le","category-kinh-doanh","category-tai-chinh-quan-ly","category-thi-truong-ban-le"],"yoast_head":"\nNHNN b\u01a1m th\u00eam 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