{"id":16422,"date":"2017-09-11T14:04:08","date_gmt":"2017-09-11T07:04:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thitruongsi.com\/kinh-nghiem\/?p=16422"},"modified":"2017-09-11T14:04:08","modified_gmt":"2017-09-11T07:04:08","slug":"chinh-sach-tien-te-o-kho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thitruongsi.com\/kinh-nghiem\/chinh-sach-tien-te-o-kho\/","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u1edf th\u1ebf kh\u00f3"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau khi\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh CSTT s\u1ebd g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n.<\/strong><\/h1>\n

T\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng d\u1ec5, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 m\u1edbi kh\u00f3<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i phi\u00ean h\u1ecdp Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 th\u00e1ng 8, m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa nh\u1eefng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00eam 0,5%\/n\u0103m, ph\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ea5u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 21-22% g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 6,7% l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ebfn 21\/8, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 10,06% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 12\/2016. Li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb nay \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau m\u00e0 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 giao ph\u00f3? Trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi ph\u00f3ng vi\u00ean c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia NH, \u00a0l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o nhi\u1ec1u NHTM cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u00ean t\u1edbi tr\u00ean 22% ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n

B\u1edfi, Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c NHNN v\u1eeba ch\u1ea5p thu\u1eadn t\u0103ng room cho m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 NH dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c t\u1eeb 20 \u2013 22%. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda c\u00e1c TCTD \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ebfn 22% \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ee7 cung \u1ee9ng cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf theo m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1eb7t ra.<\/p>\n\"\"\n

Gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng chung c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a NH h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho DN<\/em><\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 hai, theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia hi\u1ec7n nhu c\u1ea7u vay v\u1ed1n l\u01b0u \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a DN r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Do \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng s\u1ebd cao, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c 22%. \u201cV\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 v\u1ed1n ch\u1ea3y \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00fang m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch, ch\u1ee9 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y t\u0103ng bao nhi\u00eau c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d, m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn v\u00e0 nh\u1eafc t\u1edbi c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e2y 7 – 8 n\u0103m. Khi \u0111\u00f3 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u0169ng th\u00fac t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf l\u00ean. Nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf di\u1ec5n ra kh\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 mong mu\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n

D\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ea3y nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro nh\u01b0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n\u2026 n\u00ean ch\u1eb3ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ed1t m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng, k\u00e9o theo NH ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng nhu c\u1ea7u t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng\u2026 L\u00fac b\u1ea5y gi\u1edd, \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, NHNN bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c si\u1ebft t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t khi\u1ebfn cho DN g\u1eb7p r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ki\u1ec7t qu\u1ec7, di ch\u1ee9ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eadn b\u00e2y gi\u1edd.<\/p>\n

\u201c22% n\u00ean l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c tr\u1ea7n ch\u1eb7n ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea1t b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau n\u00e0y. B\u1edfi n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn x\u1ea3y ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n sai m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ebd l\u00e0m m\u00e9o m\u00f3 d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n, NH l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c cung ti\u1ec1n, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d, v\u1ecb chuy\u00ean gia c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c n\u1ebfu b\u01a1m t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u0103m sau.<\/p>\n

Kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u0169ng giao th\u00eam nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 cho NH gi\u1ea3m th\u00eam 0,5%\/n\u0103m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay. Tham v\u1ea5n c\u00e1c NH, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o NH cho hay, gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng chung c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a NH h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho DN. C\u00f2n chuy\u1ec7n gi\u1ea3m hay kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 \u1edf m\u1ee9c n\u00e0o th\u00ec ph\u1ea3i ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u1eabn gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp\u2026<\/p>\n\"\"\n

\u1ede g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, qua nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1o tr\u00ean, d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u00e1t \u0111i th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (CSTT). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o th\u00eam g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng cho NHNN khi \u0111ang giao nhi\u1ec1u nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh NH l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh, minh b\u1ea1ch\u2026<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t gi\u00e3n l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n cho vay trung d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 50% xu\u1ed1ng 40% t\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 th\u1ea3o s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 36 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5. \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n h\u1ee3p l\u00fd nh\u1eb1m g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m \u00e1p l\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i l\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c TCTD c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. Nh\u01b0ng m\u1eb7t tr\u00e1i l\u00e0 t\u00ednh k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u0169ng b\u1ecb \u201cn\u1edbi l\u1ecfng\u201d.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ea5u hi\u1ec3u th\u1ebf kh\u00f3 c\u1ee7a NHNN trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf (th\u1eddi gian qua c\u01a1 quan n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m tr\u00f2n vai) nh\u01b0ng, theo \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 TS. V\u00f5 Tr\u00ed Th\u00e0nh, d\u00f9 c\u00f3 xoay x\u1edf t\u1ed1t th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111i ch\u0103ng n\u1eefa th\u00ec m\u1ed9t m\u00ecnh NHNN c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh tr\u1ecdn v\u1eb9n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f9ng l\u00fac nhi\u1ec1u m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau: h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, gi\u1eef \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n\u2026 n\u00ean s\u1ebd c\u00f3 l\u00fac r\u01a1i v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1eb9t.<\/p>\n

TS. Nguy\u1ec5n Tr\u00ed Hi\u1ebfu th\u00ec kh\u00e1 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng khi cho r\u1eb1ng, th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 con dao hai l\u01b0\u1ee1i. Th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, nh\u01b0ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n l\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1edfi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eabn ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u01b0a b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9, nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn nay, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111ang \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t t\u1ed1t, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng y\u00ean \u1eafng\u2026<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. V\u00ed nh\u01b0, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc xao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Hay t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, tuy \u0111ang duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o t\u1eeb ki\u1ec1u h\u1ed1i, ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n FDI, ODA trong khi nh\u1eadp si\u00eau t\u0103ng l\u00ean\u2026 s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u0169ng \u0111ang l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u1ea9n s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 CPI trong th\u00e1ng 8 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 0,92% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 7, k\u00e9o theo ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 CPI t\u0103ng t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 2,52% l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 3,35% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2016. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c di\u1ec5n ra trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi do h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec7n, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 y t\u1ebf, gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c… s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u0103ng gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng, d\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn cho gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng, d\u1ea7u trong n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 8,9% ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang trong th\u00e1ng 8 v\u1eeba qua. Ngo\u00e0i ra, \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c, th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m c\u1ea3 \u1edf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf\u2026 V\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf th\u00ec ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro, m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n Th\u1eddi b\u00e1o Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/h1>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau khi\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh CSTT s\u1ebd g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. 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