{"id":16478,"date":"2017-09-11T14:51:57","date_gmt":"2017-09-11T07:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thitruongsi.com\/kinh-nghiem\/?p=16478"},"modified":"2017-09-11T14:51:57","modified_gmt":"2017-09-11T07:51:57","slug":"ngan-chan-nguy-co-tu-tang-truong-tin-dung","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thitruongsi.com\/kinh-nghiem\/ngan-chan-nguy-co-tu-tang-truong-tin-dung\/","title":{"rendered":"Ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n nguy c\u01a1 t\u1eeb t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp Th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 di\u1ec5n ra m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Ph\u00fac \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch, l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 2017 kho\u1ea3ng 21 – 22%.<\/p>\n

So s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ban \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 18% th\u00ec s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u01a1m th\u00eam v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 220 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. \u201cLi\u1ec1u thu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng l\u1ef1c\u201d n\u00e0y li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 g\u00e2y n\u00ean t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng ph\u1ee5 cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf?<\/p>\n

Thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o<\/strong><\/p>\n

Theo b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a \u1ee6y ban Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c gia (UBGSTCQG), t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 8 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2017 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 11,5% so v\u1edbi cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2016. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, so v\u1edbi k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u0103ng 22%, th\u00ec 8 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh 52,27% v\u00e0 trong 4 th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i b\u01a1m v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 578 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u khi nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m qua, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1eadp trung t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

Trong n\u0103m 2017 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng lu\u00f4n l\u1edbn h\u01a1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng huy \u0111\u1ed9ng. 8 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n \u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1t 9,1% so v\u1edbi cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2016 (c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2016 t\u0103ng 11,4%); c\u00f2n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 8 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 11,5% so v\u1edbi cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2016 (c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2016 t\u0103ng 10,2%). M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1eady, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng cho th\u1ea5y d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng.<\/p>\n

UBGSTCQG cho bi\u1ebft, thanh kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng nh\u00ecn chung v\u1eabn kh\u00e1 d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o. Bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 so v\u1edbi cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 7\/2017 t\u1eeb 0,2 \u0111\u1ebfn 0,3 \u0111i\u1ec3m %, trong khi l\u0169y k\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft th\u00e1ng 8 NHNN \u0111\u00e3 h\u00fat r\u00f2ng 32.632 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n

Theo ghi nh\u1eadn c\u1ee7a B\u00e1o \u0110\u1ea5u th\u1ea7u, thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o do \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 th\u00eam t\u1eeb ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ee7a Kho b\u1ea1c Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (KBNN). C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ee7a KBNN t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 8\/2017, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ee7a KBNN l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 160 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, t\u0103ng 68% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, gi\u00e1 mua USD t\u1ea1i NHNN \u0111ang ni\u00eam y\u1ebft l\u00e0 22.725 \u0111\u1ed3ng, cao h\u01a1n 35 \u0111\u1ed3ng so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 mua USD ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00e0 22.690 \u0111\u1ed3ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y NHNN \u0111ang h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau k\u00edch th\u00edch doanh nghi\u1ec7p b\u00e1n USD nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i. \u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng cung ti\u1ec1n VND nh\u1eb1m h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 ngu\u1ed3n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u00e0y hay kh\u00f4ng? Theo m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh – ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi n\u00e0y c\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111ang ch\u1edd gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n t\u1eeb ph\u00eda c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 con s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 nh\u01b0ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 g\u1eedi v\u0103n b\u1ea3n l\u00ean NHNN \u0111\u1ec3 xin n\u1edbi th\u00eam h\u1ea1n m\u1ee9c t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng.<\/p>\n

R\u1ee7i ro ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Theo \u00f4ng Nguy\u1ec5n Tr\u00ed Hi\u1ebfu, chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh – ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 22% l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 cao. Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP l\u00e0 6,7% th\u00ec t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng g\u1ea5p kho\u1ea3ng 2,5 l\u1ea7n, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c 16,75%. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ban \u0111\u1ea7u 18% \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 cao r\u1ed3i, n\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u0103ng 22% s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ec1 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. M\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i lo kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n kh\u00f4ng \u0111i v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kinh doanh \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, m\u00e0 \u0111i v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p nh\u01b0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, vi\u1ec7c cung \u1ee9ng m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u00e0o l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng s\u1ebd g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do c\u1ea3 c\u1ea7u k\u00e9o v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea9y. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh CPI th\u00e1ng 8 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, theo s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a UBGSTCQG, CPI th\u00e1ng 8\/2017 t\u0103ng 3,35% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2016. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 sau 6 th\u00e1ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i trong th\u00e1ng 8, cho d\u00f9 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n th\u00e1ng 8 v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p, ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng 1,31% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2016.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n 8 th\u00e1ng n\u0103m 2017 c\u0169ng t\u0103ng 3,84% so v\u1edbi b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2016, v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch 4%. Theo m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh – ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 t\u1eeb 9 \u0111\u1ebfn 12 th\u00e1ng so v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u00ean \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 21 – 22% s\u1ebd h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 2017 l\u00e0 6,7%, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng ch\u1ee9a \u0111\u1ef1ng nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro. V\u00ec v\u1eady, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng, d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n m\u1edbi c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kinh doanh, gi\u00fap t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp Th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 di\u1ec5n ra m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Ph\u00fac \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch, l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 2017 kho\u1ea3ng 21 – 22%. So s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ban \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":16480,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,50,60,68,52,54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ban-le","category-kinh-doanh","category-tai-chinh","category-tai-chinh-quan-ly","category-thi-truong-ban-le","category-thi-truong-ban-si"],"yoast_head":"\nNg\u0103n ch\u1eb7n nguy c\u01a1 t\u1eeb t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng - Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng S\u1ec9 Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thitruongsi.com\/kinh-nghiem\/ngan-chan-nguy-co-tu-tang-truong-tin-dung\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n nguy c\u01a1 t\u1eeb t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng - Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng S\u1ec9 Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp Th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 di\u1ec5n ra m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Ph\u00fac \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch, l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 2017 kho\u1ea3ng 21 – 22%. 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